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Dry Conditions Weakening in the Northern Plains

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Dry conditions are dwindling in the Northern Plains, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. In North Dakota, the extreme drought once seen in central and south-central part of the state has disappeared. Fifty-six percent of the state is in severe drought, while the Red River Valley and south-central and south-eastern portions are abnormally dry or in moderate drought. Most of Minnesota either abnormally dry, with the northwestern and west-central areas being the exception.  

Dry Conditions Continue to be Monitored in the Northern Plains

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As winter begins, there’s a lack of moisture across the Northern Plains. The soil moisture will need a recharge going into spring. “It looks like most soils are frozen in North Dakota, so there’s probably not much of a chance to get a soil recharge right now, but it’s always good to get snow on the landscape,” said Dennis Todey, director, USDA Midwest Climate Hub.
 
There’s been minimal snowfall so far. In the near term, there doesn’t look like there’s much of a change. “We’re also looking at what La Nina may bring and what that means in the winter. The long-range outlook does hint at the pattern getting more active eventually.” Todey said there is still time for soil moisture to recharge.
 
View the latest drought maps.

A Stretch of Warm Weather in Store

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A string of warmer weather is in store for the Dakotas and Minnesota. That’s according to World Weather Incorporated Senior Agricultural Meteorologist Drew Lerner. The last of the bitterly cold occurred mid-week and the warmer temperatures should stick around for a couple of weeks.
 
“This weekend and into next week, we’ll see 30 and maybe even some 40 degree temperatures when the warmest air gets over the region,” says Lerner. “But, when we get warm ups like this in the middle of winter, there’s usually a storm on the horizon. There is potential for some precipitation the middle part of the Christmas week. That could bring rain, freezing rain and snow.”
 
In January, Lerner is concerned the Northern Plains could go back into the deep freeze. Trend models in the recent weeks suggest an impressive cold surge sometime in the beginning of the new month. Listen to the full report.

North Dakota Explores Options to Assist Ag Sector

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In a joint statement, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring said they are exploring every avenue to assist farmers and ranchers due to the early snowstorm and extremely wet conditions. A Secretarial Disaster Declaration is a possibility. Goehring has voiced concern to USDA about quality discounts on grain. Burgum and Goehring also encouraged farmers to seek help if they’re overwhelmed by farm stress. Read more.

Dry Conditions Persist in Northern North Dakota

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According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, dry conditions still persistent in the northern tier counties of North Dakota. Northern Pierce and Benson counties, located in the north central part of the state, remain in D1 or moderate drought. That area of moderate drought did expand into northeast McHenry County this week. A small area in northeast Minnesota encompassing Saint Louis, Itasca and Aitkin counties is also abnormally dry, as well as the western edge of Kittson and Marshall counties in northwest Minnesota.
 

Mexico Weather Very Dry at Start of Bean Planting

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Mexico is currently behind in precipitation for this year’s spring/summer dry bean cycle and experiencing above average temperatures. Planting season in Zacatecas, Durango, Chihuahua, San Luis Potosi and Guanajuato is delayed due to the lack of precipitation. Although planting dates in Zacatecas, Durango and Chihuahua can be extended after the recommended planting season, dry beans will be at the risk of an early frost and erratic rainfall during the growing season. According to Mexican government sources, the programmed production for 2019, is projected to be 50,000 metric tons higher than 2018.
 

A Cool Fall Forecast Being Predicted

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There may not be a long growing season this fall. According to World Weather Incorporated Senior Agricultural Meteorologist Drew Lerner, data is causing concern. “There are three weather cycles playing out right now, including El Nino and the lunar cycle. El Nino is wimpy and it might dissipate in the next few weeks.” Lerner says the lunar cycle is the number one reason for the wet weather and cool bias coming back in regular intervals.

The third factor is the solar minimum. “There is a tendency for solar minimum years to help continue cool outbreaks. If the lunar cycle is already promoting a cooler tendency in the atmosphere, the solar cycle will come along and reinforce that,” says Lerner. “We are concerned a shorter growing season is more likely than a longer one.”

Severe Drought Reported in Northern ND

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Portions of northern North Dakota have moved into the severe drought. This is the first time this year these counties have been in the D2 or severe drought category. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the northern tier of counties is reporting delayed crop growth, poor pasture conditions and an increase in the culling of cattle herds. The northern half of North Dakota and extreme northwest Minnesota are dealing with abnormally dryness and moderate drought.

Dry Conditions Linger in the Canadian Prairies

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A substantial part of the Canadian Prairies remains dry, as near drought conditions linger. Glacier Farm Media Director of Markets and Weather Bruce Burnett says some areas of the western prairies are in their third year of limited moisture. “We had a dry winter with drought conditions last fall in the southern two-thirds of the prairies. We’ve had virtually no soil moisture recharge in the past two years,” says Burnett.

Timely rains are needed to sustain the crop. “To get an average crop this year, we need frequent rains. We haven’t seen that yet this growing season. If we remain dry through June, there will be a lot of stress to crops and the yield potential will drop significantly.”

June Could Bring Some Relief to Dry Areas

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While wet weather continues to plague much of the Midwest, parts of North Dakota, northwest Minnesota and Canada’s Central Prairies remain on the dry side. World Weather, Incorporated senior ag meteorologist Drew Lerner says that June will bring some change to the current weather pattern.

“A ridge of high pressure should build up across the U.S. Plains as we go through the month,” says Lerner. “Unfortunately, it may be difficult for that ridge to shut down all the wet conditions. The good news is these storm tracks will end up running across some of the drier areas in southern Canada and the northern-most part of the U.S. Plains.”